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Question: The death of which individual are Democrats most concerned about?

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The Missouri GOP has called for a new caucus in St. Charles County on Tuesday, April 10, at 7:00 PM at the St. Charles Convention Center.  (Source: MOGOP Calls New St Charles County Caucus « CBS St. Louis)

How’s it going to turn out? Obviously I don’t know for sure but here are my thoughts.

The Ron Paul-Mitt Romney coalition probably has the most energy going into it at the moment.  Word has it that they came out March 17 in roughly equal numbers to the Santorum supporters (1:1:1).  The Ron Paul supporters within the county are small as a percentage but very enthusiastic for their candidate.  So they’ll definitely be present in at least equal numbers to what they had at the March 17 caucus.  However, do they have more supporters to pull in or is their enthusiasm gap so small that they don’t have any more people to whip up and bring out to the next one?

As for the Romney supports, I saw the looks on their faces when the Raucous Caucus turned wild: a lot of them got concerned and scared.  Several were heard to comment that they were totally put off by all sides in what occurred.  A couple even commented that they would no longer support Romney due to the actions of “the woman in the blue suit”.  (She was wearing a Romney sticker.)  There may be more Romney supporters to pull for the next caucus but I haven’t seen the same level of enthusiasm amongst them as I have from the Paul supporters.  So, I’m not sure if the number of Romney supporters at the next one will increase.  They may even decline, especially if the Romney organizers burned up their equity and good will with the rank and file Romney supporters.  Since the coalition was composed of roughly equal numbers of Romney and Paul supporters, their ability as a coalition to have the same or higher number of people turn out is questionable.  They might even end up with a net loss turn out…as a coalition.  I’m assuming, of course, that the coalitions is still in place.  But I have no information to lead me to believe otherwise.

(One other thought in regard to the Romney-Paul coalition concerns what happened in other caucuses around the state on March 17.  In Greene County [which is where Springfield, MO, is located], a similar coalition took the caucus with, if memory serves me right, 60 delegates going to Paul, 40 delegates going to Romney, and 6 delegates going to Santorum.  In other smaller caucuses, there are reports of the Paul supporters taking advantage of the less caucus-wise Romney supporters and shoving them out of getting any delegates for Romney at all.  Note: If anyone has links to such reports, please do comment and I’ll be glad to post them.)

Just because Newt Gingrich is still in the race, I’ll at least mention his supporters.  I met one at the Raucous Caucus.  I was working the crowd of 900-1000 caucus-goers and managed to interact at least briefly with 700 or more of the caucus.  (Did I mention that I met one Gingrich supporter?)  Therefore I don’t see them as being a factor at the next caucus either unless they’ve got a lot of supporters somewhere in the county to pull from.  Strategically, their only chance for getting any delegates for Newt would be to form or join a coalition.  So, who would they align with: the Santorum supporters or the Romney-Paul coalition?

As for the Santorum supporters, I believe the greatest potential for the re-caucus rests with them.  While many of these supporters may have been discouraged by what occurred at the Raucous Caucus, there appears to be a huge enthusiasm gap in this camp; meaning, they may have a lot more people out there that didn’t attend the Raucous Caucus that could be pulled into the next one…if they can whip them up and get them to turn out.  Whether or not the Santorum organizers can pull it together and Rick-roll the caucus on April 10 remains to be seen.  But they appear at the moment to be starting from a net-negative on the emotional hit from the Raucous Caucus.

So the bottom line for me is that the outcome of the caucus on Tuesday, April 10, will be determined by the most organized with the most people, especially if they can bring out more people than they did the last time.  I expect the overall numbers turning out to go up and wouldn’t be surprised if it  is well over the 900-1000 that showed up last time.  And I’m fairly certain that it will again be raucous.

My best wishes to all parties.

GM’s IPO is under way and, even at the rate the stock is selling, the U.S. taxpayers will still be owed over $9 billion.

New job creation is at it’s lowest level in over 18 years…and last year was the 2nd lowest level.

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